
With bad news coming from left, right and centre, stock markets in India are likely to have extended bear phase.
To answer when this bear phase ends, we need to look through history of bear phases.
Though history has no certain answer when the bear phase will end, but can give clues about the period of bear phases.
We have taken the data of bear phases after 1990 which is turning point of Indian economy .
It shows that bear phase can extend to maximum of 16 monhs and minimum of 1 month.
Bear phases of more period:
First Bear phase: April 1992 to April 1993 (13 months)
Second Bear phase: Sept 1994 and Jan 1996 (16 months)
Third Bear phase: Feb 2000 to Sept 2001 ( 20 months)
Bear phases with less period:
May 2006 to June 2006 : 1 month
May 2006 to June 2006 : 1 month
August 1998 to Jan 1999 : 5 Months
But one thing is sure, bear phase provides opportunity for bottom fishing. You can find good stocks at reasonable level during bear phase.
Ex: SBI is havoring around 1200-1400 price, Infosys is around 1400-1600, Satyam at 400-500 shows that it is good time for long term investors, who invest in good stocks at low price.
One thing i can say is that "DONOT LOOSE YOUR HEART, But invest in good stocks and stay invested. Think of Long term and not short term period of 1month or 6 months".
Ultimately you will be the winner in this wonder world of investments
